Market importance: High importance.
Meaning: Measures the level of economic activity in the United States.
Release time: The last working day of the corresponding month, 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
Coverage period: The just-ended month.
Revision situation: No monthly revision, but quarterly revision in January.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the manufacturing sector’s performance in eight aspects: production, new orders, commodity prices, inventories, employment, order delivery, new export orders, and imports. Here we mainly consider the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, because the national PMI is already included in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing survey reports.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index is expressed as a percentage, with 50% as the dividing line between economic strength and weakness: when the index is above 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion; when the index is below 50%, especially close to 40%, it indicates a recession. It is a very important subsidiary indicator among the leading indicators, and here we focus on the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Because the market pays more attention to the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is a health check for the U.S. manufacturing sector, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released before the national PMI, which is part of the national PMI, and the market often uses the performance of the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index to make expectations for the national PMI.
In addition to the overall index, the payment price index and the receipt price index in the Purchasing Managers’ Index are also regarded as a kind of price indicator, and the employment index is more often used to predict the unemployment rate and the performance of non-farm employment.